Muslim-Muslim Ticket: ‘Only Death, Serious Health Issues Can Stop Tinubu’s Re-election’ – Ojo

Renowned political analyst Jide Ojo has declared that President Bola Ahmed Tinubu stands a strong chance of re-election in 2027, barring serious health challenges or death. In an exclusive interview, Ojo described the president as a master political strategist who has mastered the art of balancing party structures, opposition threats, and regional interests.

According to him, Tinubu’s political longevity is tied to his calculated decision-making and reliance on discreet opinion polls to test the political climate. “The only thing that can stop Bola Ahmed Tinubu from being re-elected in 2027 is death or serious health issues. Politically, he is expected to win because of his strategic approach, control over party structures, and ability to respond effectively to opposition threats,” Ojo said.

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How Tinubu Mastered 2023 Elections

Reflecting on Tinubu’s 2023 victory, Ojo noted that the former Lagos State governor made a bold move by adopting a Muslim-Muslim ticket with Kashim Shettima. Despite nationwide criticism, Tinubu calculated that the decision would secure the support of the northern Muslim majority while maintaining influence among northern Christian minorities.

“Tinubu is a smart politician who uses surveys and opinion polls to guide his decisions,” Ojo revealed. He explained that Tinubu’s reliance on professional polling agencies, though not publicized, gives him insight into voter behavior. This allowed him to identify that a same-faith ticket would neutralize Atiku Abubakar’s northern Muslim appeal and limit Peter Obi’s inroads in the North-Central region.

The strategy, Ojo argued, was not about sweeping all states but ensuring the constitutional requirement of at least 25% of votes in two-thirds of the federation. This, he said, was key to Tinubu’s victory.

Carrot and Stick Politics

A major feature of Tinubu’s political style, according to Ojo, is his ability to adopt both carrot and stick approaches. He consolidates alliances by offering power-sharing arrangements while neutralizing potential rivals by keeping them within the ruling party structure.

“He is a man who knows how to wield a carrot and a stick. He waits to see what the opposition brings to the table before making final decisions,” Ojo said.

He further noted that Tinubu has never relied solely on money politics, but on emotional appeals, calculated alliances, and discreet opinion polling to predict voter reaction before finalizing major decisions.

Regional Balance and Strategic Appointments

While acknowledging the controversy surrounding the Muslim-Muslim ticket, Ojo emphasized that for Tinubu, such considerations are secondary to electoral value. “The main focus is on who brings value to the ticket and can help secure votes,” he said.

Ojo pointed to Tinubu’s recent appointment of Nentawe Goshwe Yilwatda, a young Christian from the North-Central, as APC’s national chairman. This, he argued, was a deliberate attempt to balance religious criticisms and strengthen APC’s electoral base in a region where Christian voters hold significant influence.

He explained further that Tinubu’s governance plan is also structured for electoral advantage. The first half of his term focuses on reforms in the economy, health, and agriculture, while the latter part will prioritize infrastructure projects and grassroots support through conditional cash transfers.

Monitoring Opposition Weaknesses

Another advantage Tinubu enjoys, according to Ojo, is the disunity within opposition parties. He observed that neither the PDP nor the Labour Party has mounted a coordinated challenge against APC. Instead, internal crises and defections have weakened their influence.

Ojo highlighted Tinubu’s history of political engineering, including his central role in forming the APC and installing Buhari in 2015, as proof of his ability to capitalize on opposition weakness.

Economic Strain and Governance

On governance, Ojo admitted that Nigerians are currently burdened by economic hardship due to high living costs. However, he argued that Tinubu’s administration has made notable gains, including improved electricity supply, agricultural reforms, and free dialysis programs in federal hospitals.

According to him, while hardship remains a pressing issue, the government has demonstrated progress, which may be amplified through populist policies before the 2027 elections.

NENF’s Warning on Muslim-Muslim Ticket

Meanwhile, the Northern Ethnic Nationality Forum (NENF) has urged Tinubu and the APC to abandon the idea of repeating a Muslim-Muslim ticket in 2027. The group, led by Dominic Alancha, warned that such a move could deepen religious divides and cost APC vital votes in the Middle Belt, where northern Christians hold significant electoral weight.

The NENF noted that over 80% of northern Christians rejected APC in 2023, leading to losses in Plateau, Benue, Nasarawa, and the FCT. It argued that a repeat of the strategy could weaken APC further, especially if Peter Obi and Atiku Abubakar unite in 2027.

While acknowledging Vice President Kashim Shettima’s competence, the group stressed that inclusivity remains essential for national stability and electoral viability.

Despite criticisms, Ojo remains confident that Tinubu’s mastery of political strategy, structured governance plan, and control of APC machinery will give him a strong edge in 2027. He maintained that unless unforeseen health challenges intervene, Tinubu’s re-election is more likely than not.

Still, the rising calls for inclusivity from groups like NENF may shape Tinubu’s political calculations in the years ahead, as the president weighs religious balance against raw electoral mathematics.

Ultimately, the 2027 race appears poised to be a test of Tinubu’s enduring political genius versus the resilience of Nigeria’s opposition movements.