Will Seyi Makinde Defect to APC or Rebuild PDP?

The political future of Oyo State Governor, Seyi Makinde, has become one of the most talked-about subjects in Nigeria’s political circles, as the countdown to the 2027 general elections intensifies. Observers are divided on whether the governor, who has often charted an independent path within the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), will remain loyal to his party and rebuild it from within or make a strategic defection to the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC).

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Makinde’s position as a powerful force in the South-West makes his political decisions crucial for both parties. While some analysts believe he will eventually cross over to the APC, given his cordial relationship with President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, others insist that Makinde remains one of the few strong pillars capable of reviving the PDP’s fortunes in the region.

Makinde’s Unique Political Identity

Seyi Makinde’s rise to political prominence is tied to his reputation as a technocrat-turned-politician who values pragmatism over partisanship. Since assuming office in 2019, he has cultivated an image of independence, often taking positions that reflect both personal conviction and political strategy rather than party dictates.

During the 2023 presidential election, Makinde notably aligned with the G5 governors — a group of five PDP governors who opposed the party’s decision to field Atiku Abubakar as its presidential candidate. The group, led by former Rivers State Governor Nyesom Wike, argued for fairness and balance within the party’s leadership structure. Makinde’s participation in the G5 rebellion positioned him as a dissenting voice within the PDP, signaling his dissatisfaction with the party’s internal power dynamics.

However, his stance also brought him closer to the APC leadership, particularly President Tinubu, who enjoyed significant support from Wike and some G5 members during the 2023 elections.

Signals Pointing Toward a Possible Defection

Makinde’s relationship with the APC-led Federal Government has deepened since Tinubu assumed office. He has attended several key national events hosted by the presidency and maintained an unusually cooperative tone with federal authorities. His comments on national unity, governance, and fiscal reforms often align with Tinubu’s policies.

In addition, political watchers note that Makinde’s body language suggests he is keeping the door open to collaboration with the APC. His frequent interactions with APC governors, coupled with the warm rapport he shares with Wike — now a minister in Tinubu’s cabinet — have fueled speculation that a defection could be in the works.

From a strategic standpoint, joining the APC could offer Makinde several advantages. It could secure his political relevance beyond 2027, especially as his second and final term as governor winds down. Within the PDP, the post-Wike era has been marked by internal crises and dwindling influence, making the APC’s national machinery an attractive platform for a politician seeking continuity in power or a national role after office.

Moreover, the APC has made deliberate efforts to expand its reach in the South-West, where Tinubu’s political influence is unchallenged. Makinde, as the only PDP governor in the region, represents a valuable political asset. Bringing him into the APC fold would weaken the PDP further and consolidate the ruling party’s regional dominance.

Arguments for Rebuilding the PDP

On the other hand, Makinde’s continued loyalty to the PDP could also make political sense. Despite its internal divisions, the PDP remains one of Nigeria’s strongest opposition platforms, with nationwide structures that could rebound under effective leadership. If Makinde stays, he could play a central role in rebuilding the party, particularly in the South-West, where it has lost significant ground.

Makinde has previously expressed his commitment to strengthening democratic institutions and promoting balance in Nigeria’s political landscape. His reputation as a result-oriented governor and his moderate approach to politics have earned him cross-party respect. Staying in the PDP would allow him to position himself as a stabilizing force and possibly a national leader within the party.

Furthermore, Makinde’s personal political brand — centered on performance, transparency, and youth empowerment — aligns more closely with a reformist agenda than with the APC’s entrenched structures. By remaining in the PDP, he could preserve his identity as an independent-minded leader, rather than be seen as another defector seeking personal gain.

Political Calculations Ahead of 2027

With the next general elections just two years away, Makinde’s decision will likely hinge on how both parties evolve in the coming months. If the PDP fails to resolve its internal disputes and reposition itself as a credible opposition, the pressure on Makinde to defect could intensify. Conversely, if Tinubu’s administration faces growing public dissatisfaction, the APC may lose its attraction as a safe political haven.

There is also the question of succession in Oyo State. Makinde would want a successor who can protect his political legacy. The choice of platform may therefore depend on which party offers him a more reliable structure to influence the next governorship election.

Conclusion: Between Loyalty and Strategy

Ultimately, whether Seyi Makinde defects to the APC or stays to rebuild the PDP will depend on a combination of personal ambition, political opportunity, and national dynamics. For now, he continues to play his cards close to his chest — cooperating with the APC-led federal government while maintaining his base in the PDP.

Makinde’s political trajectory has always been guided by strategy rather than sentiment. As 2027 approaches, his decision will likely be shaped by what guarantees him greater influence — either as a bridge-builder within a revitalized PDP or as a new power player in an expanded APC.

Whichever path he chooses, one thing remains certain: Seyi Makinde will remain a central figure in shaping the political future of both Oyo State and Nigeria’s South-West.

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