Silent Moves: Saraki Strategizes for Political Relevance Ahead of 2027 Elections

As Nigeria edges closer to the 2027 general elections, the political temperature is gradually rising, and so is the curiosity around the next chapter for Bukola Saraki, former Senate President and a towering figure in Nigerian politics. Having faced back-to-back defeats in 2019 and 2023, Saraki’s recent low profile has stirred intense speculation about his next political move.

Political observers are divided: is Saraki biding his time for a strategic comeback, or is he contemplating stepping away from the political arena altogether?

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Saraki’s Strategic Silence Sparks Speculation

Since his electoral defeat and the decline of his political hold in Kwara State, Saraki has largely avoided the spotlight. His absence from recent coalition meetings among opposition heavyweights—including his close ally and 2023 PDP presidential candidate, Atiku Abubakar—has raised eyebrows.

However, sources close to the former Senate President suggest that this silence is anything but passive. During a recent visit to Ilorin for the Nikkah ceremony of the Mufti of Ilorin, Saraki reportedly met with key loyalists behind closed doors to dissect the current political landscape. According to insiders, he outright dismissed rumors of a return to the All Progressives Congress (APC), describing such claims as strategic misinformation by APC members aimed at causing confusion within the ranks.

Saraki also reportedly voiced doubts about the success of any new political party formation, pointing to the solid loyalty President Bola Tinubu commands across both APC and PDP ranks. With most governors aligning with Tinubu’s leadership, the feasibility of creating and funding a new party appears slim, at least in Saraki’s view.

Following Wike’s Footsteps: Loyalty Without Defection?

One scenario under active consideration, according to political insiders, is a “Wike-style” strategy—remaining within the PDP while lending soft support to the Tinubu administration. This nuanced approach, already adopted by figures like Nyesom Wike, Governor Seyi Makinde, and former Governor Samuel Ortom, allows for access to federal benefits without formally switching allegiances.

Such a move could help preserve the Saraki political dynasty while maintaining a foothold within the PDP, which remains Nigeria’s main opposition party. Saraki’s camp has already ruled out a switch to the Social Democratic Party (SDP), despite acknowledging that the ever-fluid nature of Nigerian politics makes nothing entirely off the table.

Political stakeholders in Kwara insist that the dynasty Saraki leads is far from dead. Despite the “Otoge” revolution that unseated his grip in 2019 and a string of defections in 2023, the local PDP leadership remains vocal about their plans to contest all elective positions in 2027. The PDP chairman in Kwara, Babatunde Mohammed, emphasized that there would be no imposition of candidates, a signal that the party intends to run an open, competitive primary process—perhaps to attract fresh energy.

Olushola Adewara, PDP spokesperson, reaffirmed Saraki’s loyalty to the party, insisting that he remains fully committed to the PDP cause.

Rebuilding or Retreat?

Experts and political analysts are split on what comes next. Some, like Hassan Saliu of the Nigerian Political Science Association, believe Saraki is still assessing the terrain to determine his most beneficial alliance. Others suggest he’s focused on local relevance, determined to keep his influence alive in Kwara, even if national ambitions remain in flux.

A political science lecturer at Kwara State University, Seyid Hassan Cisse, dismissed the possibility of a presidential run for Saraki in 2027 but predicted a kingmaker role for the seasoned politician. He described Saraki as a “Machiavellian” strategist—one who understands timing, alliances, and the long game.

Despite setbacks, many believe the Saraki dynasty isn’t finished. Drawing parallels with the Kwankwasiyya movement’s resurgence in Kano, political insiders argue that with grassroots engagement and strategic funding, Saraki’s camp could stage a comeback.

For now, Saraki watches—and waits. But in Nigerian politics, silence is often louder than words.