Marketers Predict Petrol Price Drop as Naira-for-Crude Policy Gains Ground

Nigerians may soon experience a welcome decline in the cost of Premium Motor Spirit (PMS), commonly referred to as petrol, as oil marketers express optimism over a forthcoming drop in pump prices. This encouraging development is largely attributed to the federal government’s sustained implementation of its naira-for-crude policy, which aims to anchor petroleum-related transactions in the local currency rather than the U.S. dollar.

The policy, already in motion, is expected to ease the burden on fuel pricing by reducing reliance on foreign exchange, streamlining operations for importers and local refiners, and ultimately stabilizing the market.

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Price Relief Expected as Refining Cost Declines

At the heart of this expected fuel price adjustment is the keyword “price.  Marketers say the shift to transacting in naira for both crude oil and refined products will significantly reduce the volatility that has long plagued Nigeria’s petroleum pricing structure. Additional support is expected from the 650,000-barrel-per-day Dangote Refinery, which is anticipated to reduce its petrol loading cost before the end of the week.

This adjustment, according to industry stakeholders, could contribute meaningfully to lowering the pump price of petrol across the country.

Chinedu Ukadike, the National Publicity Secretary of the Independent Petroleum Marketers Association of Nigeria (IPMAN), assured Nigerians in a recent interview that the pump price would see a substantial reduction. He credited the Federal Executive Council’s (FEC) endorsement of the naira-for-crude model as a major turning point in the quest to achieve price stability and sustainability in the downstream sector.

“This decision shows that the President is listening,” Ukadike said. “It proves that inputs from individuals and industry stakeholders are being acknowledged. The real impact will be seen at the pumps very soon, and it’s clear that the policy is having the intended effect.”

He emphasized that the initiative, which allows both local and foreign buyers to purchase crude oil and refined products using the naira, would dramatically reduce the pressure on foreign exchange and the overall cost of fuel importation.

Calls for Broader Inclusion of Local Refiners

The National Publicity Secretary of the Crude Oil Refinery-owners Association of Nigeria (CORAN), Eche Idoko, echoed these sentiments, but stressed the need for the policy to be expanded to include all operational local refineries.

While the Dangote Refinery has thus far been the primary beneficiary of the pilot phase of the naira-for-crude initiative, Idoko noted that limiting the scheme’s reach had diluted its potential impact. He urged the Federal Government to ensure the full implementation of the policy by allowing other indigenous refiners equal access to the program.

“We welcome the permanence of this policy,” Idoko said. “It is one of the most effective tools available to this administration for stabilizing the local economy amidst global disruptions. However, we need to ensure that the crude oil allocations are accessible to all five operational refineries in Nigeria.”

He added that expanding access to locally sourced crude under the naira-based system would significantly reduce Nigeria’s dependence on imported refined products, enhancing self-sufficiency and improving the country’s balance of trade.

Refining Locally, Spending Locally

Both IPMAN and CORAN agree that domestic refining is the key to long-term stability. The current administration’s efforts to bolster local refining capacity—coupled with the shift to naira-based transactions—could be a game changer in the bid to achieve energy security.

Ukadike highlighted the benefits of local refining, stating that the outdated practice of relying on international prices and old stock to determine pump prices was no longer acceptable.

“With the drop in global crude prices and this policy in place, refineries like Dangote’s must now pass on the cost benefit to Nigerians. The excuses of high-cost old stock should no longer apply,” he remarked.

Meanwhile, CORAN emphasized the importance of timely crude oil supply to local refineries under the policy to ensure consistent production and competitive pricing. Idoko stated, “We believe if crude oil is made readily available to all local refiners, Nigeria will soon reap the full benefits of self-sufficiency and stop hemorrhaging foreign reserves.”

Conclusion: Policy Meets Practice at the Pump

The continued implementation of the naira-for-crude initiative appears to be setting the stage for a new chapter in Nigeria’s fuel pricing landscape. With support from both marketers and refiners, and with the Dangote Refinery expected to lower loading prices imminently, Nigerians may soon enjoy a meaningful drop in the cost of petrol.

If the government follows through on expanding participation among all domestic refiners and ensures crude availability, the long-term effects could include sustained price reductions, improved economic resilience, and greater control over the country’s energy future.