Buhari’s Death Reshapes Political Loyalties as CPC Loyalists Weigh 2027 Options

The passing of former President Muhammadu Buhari has sent ripples through Nigeria’s political establishment, reigniting debates over the fate of his loyalists, particularly those linked to the now-defunct Congress for Progressive Change (CPC). Founded by Buhari in 2009, the CPC was a cornerstone of his political rise, and its loyal base — often described as cult-like — continues to command considerable influence, particularly in Northern Nigeria.

While President Bola Tinubu secured the presidency in 2023 under the All Progressives Congress (APC), a coalition that had earlier absorbed the CPC, the influence of Buhari’s core supporters has been visibly declining. Key figures such as former Kaduna State Governor Nasir El-Rufai and ex-Secretary to the Government of the Federation Babachir Lawal have openly criticized Tinubu’s administration and rejected any alliance with his 2027 reelection ambitions.

With Buhari’s death, analysts suggest that his 12-million-strong base could be politically up for grabs — a reality that is now fueling growing competition between the APC and the African Democratic Congress (ADC), the latter positioning itself as the ideological successor to Buhari’s vision.

ADC Claims Momentum

Bolaji Abdullahi, interim National Publicity Secretary of the ADC, claims that a significant number of Buhari’s staunchest loyalists have already aligned with their coalition. In a recent interview with The PUNCH, Abdullahi asserted that former CPC leaders like Babachir Lawal, Isa Pantami, Nasir El-Rufai, and Rotimi Amaechi are now part of the ADC’s senior leadership.

“Most of the Buhari loyalists are already with us. The majority of them, the entire North is already with our party,” Abdullahi said, suggesting that Buhari’s unfulfilled wish was for his base to rally behind a new political movement, not Tinubu’s government.

Abdullahi also accused the APC of marginalizing Buhari in his final days, claiming the current administration had repeatedly blamed Buhari for Nigeria’s economic challenges — a narrative he says further alienated Buhari’s loyalists.

“Why would they remain part of the APC? Is it because they enjoy the humiliation and exclusion they have suffered?” he asked.

APC Pushes Back

Despite mounting defection rumors, the APC remains adamant that Buhari’s loyalists are still ideologically rooted within the party. Director of Publicity Bala Ibrahim stated that those aligned with Buhari understand that the ruling party remains the natural home for their beliefs and political agenda.

“They are people of different ideologies. They are more comfortable with and in APC,” Ibrahim stated. He acknowledged that Buhari’s death created a void but framed it as a moment of internal recalibration rather than disintegration.

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“It is not a vacuum that will deform the party. It is a vacuum that will push the party into sobriety… the party is doing something to reconcile, reassess, and mend,” he said.

Former Minister of Communications and CPC veteran Adebayo Shittu reinforced this position, denying any move to join the ADC. He declared his intention to contest the 2027 Oyo governorship election under the APC banner.

“No way, I am not leaving the APC,” Shittu said. “I have no doubt I will defeat any opponent to clinch it if I am given the APC ticket.”

Divided Northern Sentiment

Despite the claims of unity, Northern political leaders remain split. Salihu Lukman, former APC Vice Chairman (North-West) and now a member of the ADC coalition, described Buhari’s death as the end of an era, warning that no political figure currently holds his level of influence.

“Now we don’t have any figure like that. Politicians must relate to citizens with higher humility rather than the current arrogance,” Lukman said during an interview with Arise TV.

He emphasized that the ADC’s goal is not merely to defeat Tinubu or the APC, but to usher in a new political culture based on service, humility, and a refreshed national agenda.

CPC Loyalists: Divided Yet Influential

A long list of CPC stalwarts remains within the APC, including former Nasarawa Governor Tanko Al-Makura, Katsina Governor Dikko Radda, and former House Speaker Aminu Masari. Others like Abubakar Malami, Isa Pantami, and Nasiru El-Rufai are now more aligned with the ADC. However, sources indicate that several who remain in APC may eventually defect if they continue to feel excluded or marginalized.

This uncertainty reflects the broader challenge facing the APC: maintaining a delicate balance between Tinubu’s base and Buhari’s loyalists. The party’s capacity to reconcile these factions may determine its viability in 2027.

Arewa Elders Offer Perspective

Prominent northern figures such as former ACF Secretary-General Anthony Sani maintain that the APC will not crumble post-Buhari. He believes that Buhari’s legacy remains intact within the APC and that his loyalists are unlikely to switch allegiances, even after his death.

“I do not think there will be any substantial change in direction by the APC after the death of former President Buhari,” Sani said. “Given the attitude of his supporters, I do not see how they will betray Buhari, even in his grave.”

Sani also expressed skepticism about the ADC-led coalition’s viability, citing lack of distinct policy direction and unfavorable political zoning that still weighs against figures like Atiku Abubakar and Peter Obi.

“President Tinubu is about the only one who has only one term to go, and northerners cannot trust Peter Obi, they cannot support Atiku Abubakar to dismantle the zoning,” he noted.

Conclusion: A Political Realignment in Progress

As Nigeria approaches another critical election season, the legacy of Muhammadu Buhari looms large over political calculations. While his loyalists remain powerful, their future alignment—whether in the APC, ADC, or a new third force—will significantly shape the trajectory of the 2027 elections.

The power struggle over Buhari’s memory and influence may just be the spark for a broader realignment within Nigeria’s political landscape.