By Henryrich, Newsworld

There is drama brewing in Osun APC, and Senator Iyiola Omisore is now at the eye of it. From what’s playing out — defections, quiet deals, planted informants and the Association of Disqualified Aspirants wobbling under pressure — the next 48 hours will determine whether Omisore walks away with bargaining power or is left holding an increasingly symbolic protest.

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A blunt truth first: in internal party games like this, the advantage rarely rests with the loudest protester. It rests with the actor who converts rage into leverage — quickly, coherently, and in ways that change the arithmetic of delegates, public sympathy and legal options. For Omisore and his inner circle, that conversion must start now.

The immediate landscape (what helps him, what hurts him)

Factors that favour Omisore

• Local, loyal base in Ife and surrounding areas. Grassroots loyalty — especially among indigenes — is not easily undone by late-stage inducements. If Omisore truly retains a core of Ife supporters willing to mobilize, that is a tangible asset for any alternative platform or for negotiating power inside APC.
• High profile and name recognition across Osun. Whether through past elective offices or frequent presence in state politics, Omisore isn’t an unknown. That visibility means he can still translate protest into votes or media traction if he moves decisively.
• Opportunity to move to SDP (or another credible platform). The SDP brand has sometimes provided a safety valve for politicians who split from the main parties. A swift switch — with a clear narrative — could preserve his dignity, campaign structure and some donor/volunteer energy.

Factors working against him

• Internal APC machine and delegate math. If the party’s leadership and local brokers have already consolidated delegates through payments or promises, a late protest will struggle to overturn that internal delegate arithmetic.
• Planted informants and defections from his camp. The user’s report that key members are primed to defect suggests internal sabotage; this will erode bargaining power quickly unless neutralised.
• Timing and INEC deadlines. If candidate submission and INEC arrangements are about to close, that temporal pressure favours the side that has already made arrangements. Delay is costly.

Strategic “moves” and their likely payoff

Below I map the practical options available and the likely consequences. These are pragmatic, not idealistic.

1. Negotiate a deal inside APC (quick peace) — Payoff: Medium
   If Omisore can extract assurances (running mate slot, state appointments, control of certain patronage streams) he preserves relevance — but risks looking purchased and losing his grassroots credibility. This is a short-term survival move.
2. Walk out to SDP (or similar) and run there — Payoff: Medium–High (longer shot)
   Moving to SDP could keep his base intact and avoid being steamrolled in the APC delegate process. It provides a clean narrative — principled resistance to manipulative primaries — and preserves the possibility of winning on a strong local showing. The downside: logistics, funding and time. He needs an immediate, credible plan for ballot access, campaign funding and messaging.
3. Legal challenges + public protest (contest outcome in court and court of public opinion) — Payoff: Low–Medium
   Courts can take time and may not deliver before ballots. However, well-targeted legal actions can delay finality, raise the cost of APC’s unilateral move and boost public sympathy. Use this only to buy time while preparing a parallel strategy.
4. Fragment and maintain protest only (symbolic resistance) — Payoff: Low
   Remaining the lone protester with dwindling allies risks political marginalization. This is the most dangerous path for long-term relevance.

Tactical checklist for the next 48 hours

• Decide and act immediately. With INEC filing closing and party machinery moving, hesitation is punishment. If the decision is to move to another platform, file paperwork and announce within 24–48 hours with a clear plan.
• Lock down your core team. Identify who will not be bought and make them visible. Publicize their commitment to blunt the narrative of mass defections.
• Public narrative: Position any move as principled — not merely personal. Frame it around fairness, democracy within the state and protecting the will of Ife voters.
• Delegate outreach: If remaining in APC is the choice, begin immediate, documented outreach to undecided delegates and local powerbrokers — and record responses. Bills and promises travel fast; evidence of active negotiations helps in court and media.
• Parallel campaign structure: Even if he negotiates inside APC, quietly prepare a fallback (SDP/contact list/donor pledges) as insurance.
• Media and legal teams on standby: Hire a tight legal team for urgent filings and a nimble media operation to control the story every hour.

The political strength from past elections

Omisore’s past shows he can command attention and pockets of deep loyalty in Osun — especially within Ife-centric networks — and he can still punch above his weight if he consolidates those networks into disciplined turnout. But past strength alone won’t override internal party arithmetic or the speed at which APC brokers move money and positions. The lesson: reputation buys attention; organisation wins elections.

Final verdict

If Omisore wants to remain a political force in Osun beyond a principled protest, he must stop acting as if he has time. The smartest path, given the reports of inducements and planted informants, is a fast, decisive pivot: either extract clear, enforceable guarantees from APC within 48 hours or defect to a credible alternative (SDP being the obvious choice) with an immediate, disciplined mobilization plan. Anything between — a prolonged protest without leverage — hands his rivals the narrative and the delegates.

At Newsworld we’re watching an ideological battle and more a chess game where the clock is about to run out. Senator Omisore’s choice in the next two days will tell us whether he’s playing to win or playing not to lose.