Nasir El-Rufai Faces Political Isolation as SDP Bid Fails to Gain Traction

Former Kaduna State Governor, Nasir El-Rufai, is currently navigating one of the most uncertain phases of his political career. Just two months after formally defecting from the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) to the Social Democratic Party (SDP), his highly publicized bid to rally opposition forces and build a formidable bloc to challenge the APC ahead of the 2027 general elections appears to have faltered.

El-Rufai had announced his departure from the APC on March 10, 2025, citing a growing misalignment between his values and the ruling party’s direction. At the time, he expressed strong determination to unite opposition parties under the SDP umbrella, pledging to build a credible alternative capable of dethroning the APC. “Without prejudice to this decision, as a member of the SDP, I will focus on engaging with and persuading other opposition leaders and parties to join us,” he stated optimistically.

However, nearly two months later, there is little evidence that his ambitions are resonating across the political landscape—especially in the North-West, where El-Rufai’s influence was once considerable.

House of Reps Proposes Mandatory Voting to Combat Voter Apathy in Nigeria

Failed Outreach in the North-West

The SDP remains structurally absent in key states of the North-West region—Kaduna, Kano, Katsina, Jigawa, Zamfara, Sokoto, and Kebbi—despite El-Rufai’s reported attempts to establish a foundation there. Political insiders revealed that the former governor made several unsuccessful overtures to governors, senators, and members of the House of Representatives across these states.

“He reached out to everyone,” a source familiar with the discussions disclosed. “But not even one lawmaker gave him a positive response—not even a local assembly member. He was turned down by all.”

Among those approached were Senators Adamu Aliero, Yahaya Abdullahi, and Garba Maidoki in Kebbi State, who, rather than aligning with El-Rufai’s SDP campaign, chose to defect to the APC. Similar rejections were reported in his attempts to sway the Governor of Nasarawa State, underscoring a widespread reluctance among prominent politicians to take the SDP seriously under his leadership.

Lack of Trust and Lingering Doubts

A major hurdle to El-Rufai’s efforts is a growing trust deficit among political stakeholders. Some political actors suspect that El-Rufai’s defection is less about ideology and more about strategy, with whispers that his move might even be a ploy to fracture the opposition on behalf of President Tinubu.

“There’s still a belief in the North that the SDP has Tinubu’s fingerprints,” one source said, alluding to the party’s historic link to Tinubu’s 1992 senatorial election victory. “So people are cautious.”

This suspicion is compounded by El-Rufai’s polarizing image, especially following his controversial promotion of the Muslim-Muslim ticket during the 2023 elections. His comments alienated a significant portion of Christian voters in the South, making it difficult for him to broaden his political appeal outside the North.

“El-Rufai is seen as too divisive,” noted Adamu Maiyama, an APC chieftain in Kebbi. “That’s why even in the South, his message through the SDP is not gaining traction.”

Advice from Atiku, Political Options Narrowing

Amid his stalled political momentum, El-Rufai reportedly met with former Vice President Atiku Abubakar, who advised him to consider returning to the People’s Democratic Party (PDP)—a party where El-Rufai once served as a key figure during the Obasanjo era.

While Atiku saw a PDP comeback as a path to political relevance, El-Rufai countered with an invitation for Atiku to join him in the SDP instead, citing internal turmoil within the PDP, especially the continued dominance of FCT Minister Nyesom Wike, as a reason to abandon the platform.

The meeting reportedly ended without consensus, leaving El-Rufai increasingly cornered. “He’s boxed in,” a source said. “Pushing forward with the SDP feels like flogging a dead horse, and returning to the APC would mean swallowing a bitter pill.”

Public Symbolism vs. Political Weight

The only notable individual El-Rufai has managed to bring into his SDP camp is comedian MC Tagwaye, known for impersonating former President Muhammadu Buhari. While Tagwaye’s comic fame is notable, it offers little political leverage.

“Convincing a comedian is not the same as winning over political stakeholders,” a critic quipped, underscoring how far El-Rufai’s influence has diminished in just a short time.

This political isolation is a far cry from the pivotal role El-Rufai once played within the APC. He was instrumental in delivering Northern support for President Tinubu’s 2023 campaign, despite the APC ultimately losing Kaduna State to the PDP during his governorship.

But El-Rufai’s relationship with Tinubu soured after his ministerial nomination was blocked, reportedly due to an adverse security report from the Department of State Services (DSS). Sources say he expected Tinubu to fight harder on his behalf, and his perceived betrayal marked the beginning of his political estrangement.

A Political Gamble with Diminishing Returns

What began as a strategic exit from the APC has left Nasir El-Rufai adrift, with dwindling political capital and uncertain alliances. With little progress in building SDP support and no major defections to his camp, the former governor finds himself politically marooned, struggling to rekindle his influence.

Whether El-Rufai chooses to return to the PDP, attempt a rapprochement with the APC, or persist with his SDP experiment, one thing is clear: the political landscape has shifted, and El-Rufai’s once-robust influence now faces its toughest test yet.