Kano Emirate Tussle: Political Rivalry and the Risk of State Violence

 

The Kano Emirate leadership crisis in Kano State, Nigeria, involving Muhammadu Sanusi II and Aminu Ado Bayero, has escalated into a political and traditional power struggle with national implications. The dispute is no longer just about the Kano Emirate; it has become a battlefield between the federal government, led by the All Progressives Congress (APC), and the state government, controlled by the New Nigeria People’s Party (NNPP).

With the APC-backed federal government supporting Bayero and the NNPP-led state government backing Sanusi, the conflict is pushing Kano toward a potential state of violence. The situation is so volatile that there are fears the federal government may declare a state of emergency to assert control.

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Why the Kano Emirate Tussle Could Lead to State Violence

1. Political Rivalry and Partisan Mobilization

The emirate crisis is fundamentally a political war between APC and NNPP, deeply rooted in the rivalry between Abdullahi Ganduje, the APC National Chairman and former Kano governor, and Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso, the NNPP leader and a powerful political force in Kano.

• In 2020, Ganduje dethroned Sanusi and divided the Kano Emirate into five, weakening the authority of the traditional emirate system.
• The 2023 governorship election saw the NNPP’s Abba Kabir Yusuf, a Kwankwaso ally, defeat the APC’s candidate, leading to Sanusi’s reinstatement and Bayero’s deposition.
• With Bayero refusing to step aside, tensions have escalated sharply, and both sides have loyal supporters who could resort to violence to protect their leaders.

Historically, Kano has been a hotbed of political violence, particularly during elections. The Kwankwasiyya movement, a strong grassroots force, and Ganduje’s APC loyalists are both capable of mobilizing street protests and counter-protests, increasing the risk of violent clashes.

2. Divided Loyalties Among Security Forces

The role of security forces in this crisis is highly controversial.

• The federal government deployed security personnel to protect Bayero upon his return to Kano, raising questions about neutrality.
• The state government, through local security agencies, is aligned with Sanusi, creating a situation where two factions within the security apparatus could find themselves in direct confrontation.
• Historical examples, like the 2019 Kano elections, show that when security forces are perceived as biased, they can become a trigger for street violence.

If violence breaks out between state-backed security forces and federal agencies, it could escalate into chaos beyond the state government’s control.

3. Cultural and Traditional Sensitivities

The Kano Emirate is not just a political institution—it is a deeply revered cultural and religious symbol. The crisis has led to a split in public loyalty, with Bayero’s supporters in urban centers like Nasarawa, while Sanusi’s influence is stronger in the traditional city center.

Any forced eviction of either emir could be seen as an insult to Kano’s cultural heritage, triggering protests and riots. Historically, Kano has witnessed violent eruptions over perceived threats to Islamic or traditional institutions, and this case is no different.

4. Judicial Contradictions and Public Frustration

The legal battle over the emirate has added to public confusion and frustration.

• A Federal High Court initially blocked Sanusi’s reinstatement, while a state court upheld it.
• The contradictory rulings have created a legal stalemate, with both sides claiming legal legitimacy.
• This judicial ping-pong has the potential to anger Kano residents, who might see the courts as tools of political manipulation.

Past Nigerian political disputes, such as the 2011 post-election violence, show that when people lose faith in the judiciary, they often resort to self-help and mob action.

5. Economic and Social Pressures as Catalysts

Kano is one of Nigeria’s largest commercial hubs, but its economy is struggling under the weight of inflation, unemployment, and insecurity.

• The emirate crisis has the potential to destabilize Kano’s economy, discouraging investment and increasing youth frustration.
• Unemployed youth could easily be mobilized by political actors for protests, blockades, or even violent confrontations.
• Similar dynamics played a role in early Boko Haram recruitment, where economic hardship fueled violent uprisings.

With the emirate tussle providing a rallying point for political grievances, these economic pressures could explode into violent protests.

Could the Federal Government Declare a State of Emergency?

Under Section 305 of the 1999 Nigerian Constitution, the President can declare a state of emergency if there is a breakdown of public order and safety beyond the control of the state government.

Here’s a breakdown of the factors that could influence such a decision:

Factors Supporting a State of Emergency

1. Federal Government’s Political Interests
   • Kano is a critical battleground state for the 2027 elections.
   • Declaring a state of emergency could be a strategic move by the APC-led federal government to weaken the NNPP and regain political control.
2. Precedent of Political Violence
   • Kano has a history of electoral and political violence (e.g., 2019 governorship elections).
   • If violent clashes erupt, the federal government could justify military intervention.
3. Federal Security Deployment
   • The heavy presence of federal troops and police around Bayero’s residence suggests readiness for intervention.
   • If the situation deteriorates, the federal government could argue that the state government has lost control.

Factors Against a State of Emergency

1. Political Backlash
   • Declaring emergency rule would be seen as APC overreach, potentially alienating Kano voters.
   • It could galvanize northern opposition against the federal government.
2. Judicial Resolution Could De-escalate Tensions
   • The Chief Justice of Nigeria has intervened to resolve conflicting court orders, which might stabilize the situation.
3. Public Resistance
   • Kwankwaso and NNPP leaders have warned that Kano’s people will resist any federal takeover.
   • The Kwankwasiyya movement has the capacity to organize large-scale protests, which could escalate into street battles.

Conclusion: A Powder Keg Waiting to Explode

The Kano Emirate crisis is a high-stakes political and traditional battle that has the potential to spiral into state violence. The APC-NNPP rivalry, combined with security force divisions, cultural sensitivities, legal contradictions, and economic pressures, has created a dangerous mix that could erupt at any moment.

While a state of emergency remains a possibility, its likelihood depends on whether the crisis leads to widespread violence. If clashes remain localized, the federal government might hold back, but if major bloodshed occurs, the chances of emergency rule increase significantly.

For now, Kano’s peace hangs in the balance, with both sides engaged in a dangerous game of political brinkmanship. The best hope for stability lies in judicial clarity, political restraint, and genuine dialogue—but whether these will prevail remains uncertain.