Marketers of petroleum products have indicated that the retail price of Premium Motor Spirit (PMS), commonly known as petrol, could soon decline to around ₦1,200 per litre following a major price reduction by the Dangote Petroleum Refinery.

The projection comes after the refinery reduced its gantry price by ₦75 per litre, bringing the ex-depot cost down from ₦1,250 to ₦1,175 per litre. Industry observers say the adjustment is already influencing prices across fuel depots, with several marketers reportedly lowering their rates to about ₦1,180 per litre.

According to the refinery, the decision was driven by declining global energy prices following easing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.

The company explained that the de-escalation of hostilities and renewed diplomatic engagement between the United States and Iran contributed to a sharp decline in crude oil prices, creating room for a reduction in refined fuel costs.

Under the revised pricing structure, the refinery’s coastal price per metric tonne was also lowered from ₦1,595,790 to ₦1,495,215, with the changes taking effect from June 16, 2026.

Despite the reduction at the depot level, many filling stations across the country were still selling petrol at approximately ₦1,280 per litre as of Tuesday.

Industry operators explained that retailers are still working through older inventory purchased at higher prices and are therefore unable to immediately reflect the new rates.

The National Publicity Secretary of the Independent Petroleum Marketers Association of Nigeria, Chinedu Ukadike, said consumers should begin to notice price adjustments once newly acquired stock reaches filling stations.

According to him, petrol could sell between ₦1,200 and ₦1,250 per litre in Lagos, while prices in more distant locations may remain slightly higher because of transportation and distribution costs.

“By tomorrow and Friday, people will start adjusting to the new price. The price is not static, and it depends on where you are. But I know that products will start selling between ₦1,200 and ₦1,250 in Lagos and more in other far-away locations,” Ukadike stated.

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The decline in petrol prices follows a significant drop in international crude oil prices.

Brent crude, the global benchmark, reportedly fell from about $87 per barrel to around $78 per barrel after reports emerged of a peace agreement between the United States and Iran, easing concerns over disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz.

Earlier in the year, crude oil prices had surged above $120 per barrel during heightened tensions, contributing to rising fuel costs across Nigeria.

As a result, petrol prices climbed from roughly ₦830 per litre to around ₦1,300 per litre, while diesel and aviation fuel also experienced substantial increases.

Meanwhile, the spokesman of the Petroleum Products Retail Outlet Owners Association of Nigeria, Joseph Obele, expressed concerns that imported petroleum products appear to be more competitively priced than some locally refined products.

He called on the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority to issue additional import licences to encourage competition and improve supply.

Industry stakeholders believe the latest price adjustment could provide some relief for motorists and businesses if crude oil prices continue to decline and marketers fully pass on the lower costs to consumers.

Analysts note, however, that the pace and extent of any further reductions will depend on global oil market developments, logistics costs, exchange rate movements, and domestic supply conditions.