In assessing Nigeria’s agricultural production, in which aspect do you think the country failed to prioritise efforts in 2024?

Agbugba: The high cost of inputs has continued to pose a major challenge for both livestock and crop farmers. The cost of farm inputs especially feeds for livestock has continued to escalate. This is even more saddening that up till now, Nigeria’s food security situation is interlinked to a plethora of factors. Truly, agricultural production is inseparable from the conduct of other economic agents, as well as the structure of the food markets. This year, the adverse effect of fuel scarcity and outrageous hikes in price has affected virtually all the sectors of Nigeria’s economy and agriculture still stands tall.

The majority of Nigerian farmers (majorly smallholder-based) lack access to affordable capital. Over time, literature tells us that the agriculture sector employs over 70 per cent of Nigeria’s rural population, but what is more depressing is that farmers’ lack of affordable capital has no doubt stemmed and stifled by high interest rates.

The Central Bank of Nigeria raised its benchmark interest rate on 26th November 2024 by 25 basis points to a new record high of 27.5 per cent for the sixth time since this year. These exorbitant rates make it nearly impossible for farmers who are typically smallholders to secure the needed finance to scale up or expand operations or even adopt modern farming techniques. Truly, this is a major thread among other aspects in this seemingly tangled fabric of Nigeria’s food insecurity situation.

The ICIR: A recent survey by the United Nations projects that at least 33.1 million people in 26 states and the FCT will face a food and nutrition crisis in 2025. What is your take on this report? 

Agbugba: The report corroborates with reality. You do not need expert analysis to understand the gravity of food insecurity in Nigeria. You can easily make contact with this reality in the streets, in markets, in religious centres and hospitals, among other centres. I am dispirited that the governments are not striving enough to tackle this issue with the right strategy. All I hear is lip service even in the face of alarming figures from the CBN on interest rates coupled with the widening gap of underemployed citizens, closure of companies, and hike in food prices.

The deposit interest rate in Nigeria is projected to be around 12.83per cent in 2025 and 10.83per cent in 2026. According to the Trading Economics Report, Nigeria’s inflation rate accelerated for the second straight month in October 2024, climbing to a four-month high of 33.9per cent.

Meanwhile, the economy grew 3.46 per cent annually in the third quarter, its fastest pace in three quarters, driven by the services sector. The naira has depreciated by around 46 per cent against the dollar this year, partly due to efforts to allow it to float after being pegged at an artificially strong rate for years. It has also been affected by poor liquidity, despite CBN’s attempts to alleviate pressure by supplying dollars to meet domestic demand.

There is a relationship between poverty, food insecurity and malnutrition and if something real quick is not done, it will still play out badly on the economy.

There is a relationship between poverty, food insecurity and malnutrition and if something real quick is not done, it will still play out badly on the economy. The majority of the Nigerian population is poor, in fact, in recent times, a lot of people have been plunged into severe cases of poverty. The report from the survey is timely. Any responsible government will put measures on the ground immediately to avert any disastrous humanitarian crisis by 2025.

The aftermath of devastating floods and insurgency is negatively impacting the food supply in the country. What should be done differently to change the tide? 

Agbugba: First, the government must tackle insecurity head-on. This must not be by kinetic means alone. The government needs to be genuinely honest about dialoguing with these non-state actors to bring about lasting peace in Nigeria. Some of these insurgents may have germane reasons, such as negligence on the part of the government in delivering the goods of democracy, unemployment, inequality, and economic hardship.

Second, actions must be taken by governments at all levels to embank rivers in farming communities and dredge water channels where necessary.

Third, farmers should be encouraged to adopt the principle of insurance.

Fourth, the government should work more with agencies like the National Emergency Management Agency and Nigerian Maritime Administration and Safety Agency in leveraging the merits of early warning notice periods to curtail the impact of flooding on farmers.

Fifth, stakeholders in research and development should develop drought-resistant crops and venture into areas to build and restructure food and agricultural systems as that would encourage partnerships and collaborations between and among educational institutions in Nigeria and that of the global north as highlighted by SDG 17 – ‘strengthening global partnerships for sustainable development.’