Nigeria Earns N12.96tn from Oil Exports in Q1 2025 Amid Domestic Refining Woes

Despite an ambitious drive to strengthen its local refining sector, Nigeria’s crude oil exports remain dominant, contributing a staggering N12.96tn in the first quarter of 2025. This figure, which represents 62.89% of the nation’s total exports for the period, was revealed in the latest Foreign Trade in Goods Statistics report released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS).

While these export earnings underscore Nigeria’s continuing reliance on petroleum revenue, the country’s domestic refining capacity remains significantly underutilized due to insufficient crude feedstock. The slow implementation of the Domestic Crude Supply Obligation (DCSO) and the Domestic Crude Refining Requirement (DCRR) has contributed to this mismatch, stalling the vision of a self-sustaining downstream oil industry.

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Crude Dominates Exports Despite Falling Volumes

According to the NBS, Nigeria recorded a positive merchandise trade balance of N5.17tn in Q1 2025 — a 51.07% increase compared to N3.42tn in the preceding quarter. Total trade during the period climbed to N36.02tn, reflecting a 6.19% rise from the same period in 2024.

However, crude oil exports, while still dominant, saw a noticeable dip. At N12.96tn, the figure marks a 16.35% decline from the N15.49tn reported in Q1 2024 and a 6.01% drop from Q4 2024. Still, crude oil outperformed all other commodities, far ahead of exports like liquefied natural gas, urea, and cocoa beans.

India led as Nigeria’s top crude buyer during the quarter, purchasing crude valued at N1.41tn. Other major importers included the Netherlands (N1.36tn), France (N1.28tn), Spain (N989.54bn), and the United States (N779.39bn). In Africa, South Africa was the leading buyer with N704.73bn, followed by Ivory Coast (N403.99bn), Senegal (N327.89bn), and Ghana (N50.55bn).

Domestic Refineries Starved of Crude Despite Policies

While the numbers paint a lucrative picture internationally, the reality at home remains starkly different. Nigeria’s local refiners, under the umbrella of the Crude Oil Refinery Owners Association of Nigeria (CORAN), continue to decry their inability to access local crude supplies. Their appeals spotlight the systemic reluctance of oil producers who prefer foreign buyers offering payments in U.S. dollars, rather than supplying local refineries under naira-based contracts.

Eche Idoko, the association’s Publicity Secretary, lamented on Monday that despite the existence of policies like the DCSO and DCRR under the Petroleum Industry Act 2021, implementation has been poor. “While these policies theoretically secure supply for local refineries, in reality, enforcement has been weak and inconsistent,” he said.

Idoko also criticized the government’s restriction of the naira-for-crude policy to only the Dangote Refinery, arguing that it contradicts the broader goals of equitable access and capacity development. “Selective policy implementation undermines the essence of national refining self-sufficiency,” he added.

Other Oil Products Surge, Imports Drop

In contrast to the decline in crude exports, Nigeria saw a sharp surge in revenue from the export of other petroleum products. These products earned N4.48tn in Q1 2025, reflecting a 134.24% increase from the N1.91tn recorded in Q1 2024 and a 32.07% jump from N3.39tn in Q4 2024. This growth signals a potential silver lining in the downstream sector, although much of the products were likely produced outside Nigeria.

On the import side, the country spent N3.79tn on importing petroleum products in Q1 2025 — a significant 42.20% drop from N6.55tn in the same quarter of 2024. This decline also marked a 21.19% decrease from Q4 2024, as the country gradually reduces dependency on imported fuel. Analysts attribute this trend to rising foreign exchange costs, weakening consumer demand, and strategic stockpiling by major distributors.

 High Exports, Low Domestic Gains

While the robust export earnings highlight Nigeria’s enduring role in the global oil market, the disconnect between upstream production and downstream utilization remains a critical issue. With billions earned abroad and local refineries still struggling for crude, the current export-heavy approach may be unsustainable.

Policy analysts argue that without strict enforcement of the DCSO and DCRR mandates, Nigeria risks prolonging its dependence on fuel imports and missing the full economic benefits of domestic refining.

As the country moves further into 2025, stakeholders are calling for urgent reforms, including fair allocation of crude to local refineries, transparent implementation of naira-for-crude agreements, and full operationalization of the Petroleum Industry Act. Only then, they contend, can Nigeria transition from a crude exporter to a truly integrated energy economy.